AI OBSERVATORY
Are end users continuing to pay? Can that revenue support the next round of compute investment?
Commercial scale is disclosed, but comparable revenue, paid-workload and rental histories are incomplete. No boom or recession classification yet.
PressureWatchHealthyNot assessedGrey means insufficient evidence, not low risk.
Track paying users, net ARPU and renewals for ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini.
Green: paid revenue and retention improve. Amber: slower growth or weaker retention. Red: sustained contraction in both.
Compare seats, paid API usage and customer expansion across model providers and Copilot.
Green: paid workload and revenue expand together. Amber: divergence. Red: both contract; NRR below 100% is a warning.
AWS · Azure · Google Cloud · OCI. Compare results with forecasts set before earnings.
Green: over 60% of fixed-weight coverage beats forecasts. Amber: 40–60%. Red: below 40%. Show coverage and check paid usage separately.
Compare the same GPU, region and contract. Falling prices alone do not prove weaker AI demand.
Green: paid occupancy and renewal economics hold. Amber: one weakens. Red: both deteriorate persistently.
Track hyperscaler capex coverage and neocloud debt service; separate customer cash from financing.
Green: adjusted operating cash covers capex and debt obligations are covered. Amber: a funding gap with available liquidity. Red: a cash shortfall or debt-service failure.
Revenue at the March 31, 2026 disclosure; $24B annualized, not realized annual revenue or contracted ARR. Enterprise represented over 40%.
Official disclosure ↗The May 28, 2026 announcement reported over $47B revenue run-rate earlier in May, not recognized annual revenue. Comparable quarters, retention and cash burn remain to be added.
Official disclosure ↗For seasonally adjusted, same-sample end-user revenue and fixed-quality paid workload, calculate quarterly growth g and its change Δg. Both series must agree for two quarters: positive g and Δg = expansion; positive g and negative Δg = slowing; both negative = contraction; negative g and positive Δg = recovery. Near-zero, conflicting, stale or missing data remain unclassified.
Lights assess individual evidence, do not map one-to-one to cycle stages, and are not averaged into a bubble score. Green does not mean cheap valuation. Financing is not revenue; model-company and cloud revenue must not be double-counted. The 60%/40% earnings-breadth bands are initial, unbacktested rules.
Review cadence: weekly rental quotes, monthly paid usage and run-rate, quarterly earnings and cash flow. This page is a manual research snapshot; automatic updates are not connected and earnings forecasts have not yet been frozen.